Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Utd at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sheffield Utd face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Bramall Lane to face Sheffield Utd in Championship (matchday 42). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sheffield Utd's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sheffield Utd are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hull City (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.40 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Sheffield Utd edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Sheffield Utd 0–1 Hull City — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 35 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 45% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 47% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.50 xG and Hull City 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 1.245 / defence 1.158 | Hull City attack 1.077 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Data: built from Sheffield Utd's last 87 games and Hull City's last 87.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 36% | Draw 28% | Hull City 36%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.75 | Draw 3.56 | Hull City 2.82. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Sheffield Utd 36% and Hull City 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Utd's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sheffield Utd 90% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 36% | Draw 28% | Hull City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Sheffield Utd 1.50 / Hull City 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 1.245 / def 1.158 | Hull City attack 1.077 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Sheffield Utd and Hull City level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Hull City xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Sheffield Utd 2 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Hull City part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 36% chance of winning, Hull City a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sheffield Utd vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 1.25x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.08x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Utd's last 87 games and Hull City's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.56
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
2.98
1.48
Hull City xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.48 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Utd come into this having played 87 games, going 44W 12D 31L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.34 PPG from 87 outings (32W 21D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.34 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sheffield Utd's home form reads 23W 7D 13L across their last 43 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 43 away games (17W 9D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Sheffield Utd (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Utd and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 44W 12D 31L in their last 87 games (1.66 PPG), while Hull City have gone 32W 21D 34L in their last 87 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Hull City away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.77 PPG; Hull City away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hull City in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won Sheffield Utd 0-3 Hull City on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have won 5, Hull City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Hull City?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 49%, Hull City 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sheffield Utd) and 44% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hull City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Utd and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 49% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Utd and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sheffield Utd's recent games and 44% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Utd and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 60% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Hull City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 2-1 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.50 xG and Hull City 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 / defence 1.16 against Hull City attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 36% | Draw 28% | Hull City 36%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 47%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.66 PPG, Hull City 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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