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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat QPR 1-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.75 xG and Swansea 1.32 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.23 / defence 1.25 against Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.28 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights