🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Stoke City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Stoke City 1-0 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.45 xG and Stoke City 1.44 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stoke City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Stoke City attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 38% | Draw 25% | Stoke City 37%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 55%, Stoke City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Stoke City's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.24 PPG, Stoke City 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights