QPR vs Portsmouth Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates QPR at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Portsmouth at Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 6 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
QPR — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Portsmouth stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Portsmouth have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: QPR 1.40 PPG, Portsmouth 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, QPR have won 2, Portsmouth 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2026, ended QPR 3–1 Portsmouth — a QPR win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 64% versus Portsmouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 62% | Portsmouth 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.27 xG and Portsmouth 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.134 / defence 0.885 | Portsmouth attack 0.752 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.294. Portsmouth bring a tight defence (rating 0.729, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling QPR's projected output down. Portsmouth's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from QPR's last 61 games and Portsmouth's last 61.
Result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 25%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.18 | Draw 3.47 | Portsmouth 3.96. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: QPR 70% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG QPR 1.27 / Portsmouth 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.134 / def 0.885 | Portsmouth attack 0.752 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: QPR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Portsmouth xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does QPR vs Portsmouth kick off?
QPR vs Portsmouth is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Loftus Road.
Where is QPR vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Portsmouth part of?
QPR vs Portsmouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 46% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both QPR and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will QPR vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.13x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 61 games and Portsmouth's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
QPR xG
Total xG
2.13
0.86
Portsmouth xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are QPR and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for QPR and 0.86 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 16D 23L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (20W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.34 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
QPR's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.13 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
QPR (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Portsmouth away?
QPR's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.57 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
QPR have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Mar 2026, when QPR won QPR 6-1 Portsmouth.
QPR's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
QPR
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Portsmouth?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 2, Portsmouth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did QPR and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Portsmouth 1-3 QPR.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, Portsmouth 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for QPR and 43% for Portsmouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Portsmouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 57% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of QPR's matches and 43% of Portsmouth's.
Do QPR and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of QPR's recent matches and 63% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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