QPR 6-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Portsmouth at Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 39). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
QPR — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
QPR's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — QPR are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Portsmouth stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Portsmouth have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: QPR 1.00 PPG, Portsmouth 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 60% of Portsmouth's (from QPR's last 10 home games and Portsmouth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, QPR have won 0, Portsmouth 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended QPR 1–1 Portsmouth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 61% versus Portsmouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 57% | Portsmouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.56 xG and Portsmouth 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.054 / defence 1.429 | Portsmouth attack 0.937 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.177. QPR's defence rating of 1.429 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Portsmouth's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 84 games and Portsmouth's last 83.
Result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 37%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.72 | Draw 3.86 | Portsmouth 2.68. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — QPR 37% and Portsmouth 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Portsmouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 70% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 37% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG QPR 1.56 / Portsmouth 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.054 / def 1.429 | Portsmouth attack 0.937 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — QPR and Portsmouth level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Portsmouth xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does QPR vs Portsmouth kick off?
QPR vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Portsmouth?
QPR 6 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is QPR vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Portsmouth part of?
QPR vs Portsmouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 37% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both QPR and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.05x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 84 games and Portsmouth's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.86
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
QPR xG
Total xG
3.14
1.58
Portsmouth xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for QPR and 1.58 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR come into this having played 83 games, going 28W 22D 33L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.13 PPG from 83 outings (24W 22D 37L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.28 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
QPR's home form reads 15W 10D 15L across their last 40 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 40 away games (7W 10D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.13 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 28W 22D 33L in their last 83 games (1.28 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 24W 22D 37L in their last 83 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Portsmouth away?
QPR's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.38 PPG; Portsmouth away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
QPR have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Mar 2026, when QPR won QPR 6-1 Portsmouth.
QPR's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
QPR
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Portsmouth?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 2, Portsmouth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did QPR and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Portsmouth 1-3 QPR.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, Portsmouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for QPR and 55% for Portsmouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Portsmouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 58% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of QPR's matches and 55% of Portsmouth's.
Do QPR and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of QPR's recent matches and 70% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant QPR run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Portsmouth 6-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.56 xG and Portsmouth 1.58 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.05 / defence 1.43 against Portsmouth attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 37% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 37%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 57%, Portsmouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (83 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (83 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.28 PPG, Portsmouth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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