QPR 1-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Portsmouth at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's home record at MATRADE Loftus Road: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Portsmouth have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: QPR 1.00 PPG, Portsmouth 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Portsmouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Portsmouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 46% | Portsmouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 2.10 xG and Portsmouth 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.859 / defence 1.348 | Portsmouth attack 1.131 / defence 1.636. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.945. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.636 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 QPR games / 9 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 52% | Draw 22% | Portsmouth 26%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Portsmouth 3.85. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Portsmouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 52% | Draw 22% | Portsmouth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG QPR 2.10 / Portsmouth 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.859 / def 1.348 | Portsmouth attack 1.131 / def 1.636 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: QPR (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Portsmouth xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Portsmouth kick off?
QPR vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Portsmouth?
QPR 1 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is QPR vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Portsmouth part of?
QPR vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 52% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both QPR and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Portsmouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Portsmouth in?
QPR (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.86x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.64x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.48
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
QPR xG
Total xG
3.54
1.44
Portsmouth xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
31.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for QPR and 1.44 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
QPR come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 15D 24L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.85 PPG from 55 outings (28W 18D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of QPR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
QPR's home form reads 7W 8D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.81 points per game from 27 outings (13W 10D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 28W 18D 9L in their last 55 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.07 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.81 PPG.
Have QPR or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when QPR won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Portsmouth?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Portsmouth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when QPR 6-1 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 59%, Portsmouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 52% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 52%; QPR have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of QPR's recent matches and 48% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 52% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Portsmouth tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portsmouth defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat QPR 1-2 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 2.10 xG and Portsmouth 1.44 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Portsmouth attack 1.13 / defence 1.64, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 52% | Draw 22% | Portsmouth 26%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 46%, Portsmouth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.