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Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out QPR 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat QPR 2-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.67 xG and Derby 1.70 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against Derby attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 37% | Draw 25% | Derby 38%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 57%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.27 PPG, Derby 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights