QPR vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Loftus Road to face QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 3W 2D 5L at Loftus Road — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burnley (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in QPR's favour (1.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burnley in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: QPR 1W, Burnley 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–5 with Burnley winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — QPR 61% and Burnley 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 66% | Burnley 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 2.00 xG and Burnley 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.887 / defence 0.958 | Burnley attack 0.830 / defence 1.554. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.297. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.554 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 QPR games / 3 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 58% | Draw 26% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Burnley 5.88. The model has a clear lean to QPR (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 58% | Draw 26% | Burnley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG QPR 2.00 / Burnley 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.887 / def 0.958 | Burnley attack 0.830 / def 1.554 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: QPR (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Burnley kick off?
QPR vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at Loftus Road.
Where is QPR vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Burnley part of?
QPR vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 58% chance of winning, Burnley a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both QPR and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 1 | Burnley 2W.
What form are QPR and Burnley in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Burnley (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 0.89x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.83x) against QPR's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 49/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
58%
1.74
26%
3.88
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
QPR xG
Total xG
3.04
1.03
Burnley xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
44.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are QPR and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for QPR and 1.03 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 8D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 0.56 PPG from 41 outings (4W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
QPR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
QPR's home form reads 8W 2D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 0.45 points per game from 20 outings (2W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.02 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Burnley in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Burnley in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 11D 26L in their last 41 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Burnley away?
QPR's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.30 PPG; Burnley away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
1
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when QPR 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for QPR, 80% for Burnley — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for QPR and 70% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of QPR's games and 80% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of QPR's matches and 70% of Burnley's.
Do QPR and Burnley tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Burnley in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.