QPR 0-0 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Bristol City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Bristol City in Championship (matchday 42). Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
QPR (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, QPR have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bristol City's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Bristol City away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for QPR, 1.10 for Bristol City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from QPR's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) — QPR have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bristol City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for QPR, 2 for Bristol City and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended QPR 2–1 Bristol City — a QPR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 63% versus Bristol City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 58% | Bristol City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.74 xG and Bristol City 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.315 / defence 1.333 | Bristol City attack 0.914 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.193. QPR carry an above-average attack rating of 1.315 — their 1.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. QPR's defence rating of 1.333 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bristol City's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 87 games and Bristol City's last 87.
Result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 31%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.33 | Draw 3.83 | Bristol City 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 70% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 43% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG QPR 1.74 / Bristol City 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.315 / def 1.333 | Bristol City attack 0.914 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: QPR (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bristol City xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does QPR vs Bristol City kick off?
QPR vs Bristol City kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Bristol City?
QPR 0 - 0 Bristol City.
Where is QPR vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Bristol City part of?
QPR vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 43% chance of winning, Bristol City a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both QPR and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.31x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.91x) against QPR's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 87 games and Bristol City's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
QPR xG
Total xG
3.19
1.45
Bristol City xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
5%
18.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are QPR and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for QPR and 1.45 for Bristol City, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR come into this having played 87 games, going 30W 23D 34L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.39 PPG from 87 outings (32W 25D 30L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for QPR against 1.39 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
QPR's home form reads 17W 10D 16L across their last 43 home games, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 43 away games (12W 14D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Bristol City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 30W 23D 34L in their last 87 games (1.30 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 32W 25D 30L in their last 87 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Bristol City away?
QPR's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.42 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between QPR and Bristol City, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
4
Draws
2
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Bristol City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 4, Bristol City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: QPR 0-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Bristol City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 72%, Bristol City 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (QPR) and 42% (Bristol City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bristol City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Bristol City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of QPR's games and 49% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of QPR's matches and 42% of Bristol City's.
Do QPR and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of QPR's recent matches and 70% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR and Bristol City finished level at 0-0 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.74 xG and Bristol City 1.45 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bristol City landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.31 / defence 1.33 against Bristol City attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 31%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 58%, Bristol City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bristol City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.30 PPG, Bristol City 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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