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Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 35, as Preston and Swansea drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.65 xG and Swansea 0.77 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Swansea attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 58% | Draw 25% | Swansea 17%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 52%, Swansea 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Swansea's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.31 PPG, Swansea 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights