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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston and Stoke City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 40, as Preston and Stoke City drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.44 xG and Stoke City 0.80 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Stoke City attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 52% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 21%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 51%, Stoke City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Stoke City's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.29 PPG, Stoke City 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights