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Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Portsmouth 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.49 xG and Portsmouth 0.83 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Portsmouth attack 0.73 / defence 1.26, drawn from 76/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 52% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Portsmouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Portsmouth's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.27 PPG, Portsmouth 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights