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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 5, as Preston and Middlesbrough drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.16 xG and Middlesbrough 1.26 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Preston beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Middlesbrough attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 34% | Draw 27% | Middlesbrough 39%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Middlesbrough 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.14 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights