Preston 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 23 as Preston welcome Hull City to Deepdale. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's home record at Deepdale: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deepdale. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Preston are significantly better at Deepdale than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Preston) versus 0.50 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Preston have won 1, Hull City 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 52% versus Hull City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 53% | Hull City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.28 xG and Hull City 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.840 / defence 0.978 | Hull City attack 0.877 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.025. Data: 68 Preston games / 68 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 24%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Hull City 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preston are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Preston 50% | Hull City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Preston 1.28 / Hull City 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.840 / def 0.978 | Hull City attack 0.877 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Preston (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Hull City xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Hull City kick off?
Preston vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Hull City?
Preston 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Preston vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Hull City part of?
Preston vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 44% chance of winning, Hull City a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Preston and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Hull City?
Record (6 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 3 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Preston and Hull City in?
Preston (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Preston's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.12
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Preston xG
Total xG
2.16
0.88
Hull City xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Preston and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Preston and 0.88 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preston come into this having played 68 games, going 22W 20D 26L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.31 PPG from 68 outings (23W 20D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.26 PPG, Hull City on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preston's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (13W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.31 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 62%.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Hull City in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 22W 20D 26L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Hull City have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Hull City away?
Preston's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.48 PPG; Hull City away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Hull City won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
4
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, Hull City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Preston 0-3 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 58%, Hull City 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Preston and 64% for Hull City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston have failed to score in 27% of games; Hull City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Preston's games and 64% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Preston's matches and 64% of Hull City's.
Do Preston and Hull City tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hull City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Hull City 1-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.28 xG and Hull City 0.88 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 24%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 53%, Hull City 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.26 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.