Preston vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 26 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Preston (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Preston, 0.30 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Preston register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Derby in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Preston, 3 for Derby and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preston 60% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 52% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.53 xG and Derby 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.803 / defence 1.250 | Derby attack 0.900 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.290. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Preston's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Preston games / 60 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 40% | Draw 24% | Derby 36%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Preston 70% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 40% | Draw 24% | Derby 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Preston 1.53 / Derby 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.803 / def 1.250 | Derby attack 0.900 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Preston (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Derby xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Derby kick off?
Preston vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 December 2026 at Deepdale.
Where is Preston vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Derby part of?
Preston vs Derby is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 40% chance of winning, Derby a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Preston and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 2 | Derby 3W.
What form are Preston and Derby in?
Preston (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Derby (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Preston's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.90x) against Preston's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.10
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Preston xG
Total xG
2.98
1.45
Derby xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Preston and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Preston and 1.45 for Derby, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Preston have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 17D 27L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 13D 26L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Preston against 1.27 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Preston are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.30 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Derby in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Derby in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.17 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Preston
2
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Preston have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 60%, Derby 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Preston) and 63% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Preston's games and 67% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Preston's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do Preston and Derby tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.