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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Preston 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Preston 0-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.27 xG and Derby 1.20 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Preston fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Derby attack 1.15 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 38% | Draw 28% | Derby 34%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Derby 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Derby's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.29 PPG, Derby 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights