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Preston cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Charlton 2-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.21 xG and Charlton 0.76 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Charlton attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 46% | Draw 32% | Charlton 22%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Charlton's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Preston winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights