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Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 33, as Preston and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Burnley attack 1.11 / defence 0.48, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 22% | Draw 33% | Burnley 45%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 53%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.20 PPG, Burnley 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights