Preston 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Preston host Burnley at Deepdale in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preston have posted 3W 6D 1L at Deepdale — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.00 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 10 clean sheets from 10 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Preston) versus 2.00 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Preston have won 0, Burnley 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 51% versus Burnley 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 53% | Burnley 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.981 / defence 0.907 | Burnley attack 1.110 / defence 0.476. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.036. Burnley's defence strength of 0.476 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 77 Preston games / 32 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 22% | Draw 33% | Burnley 45%. Fair-value odds: Preston 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Burnley 2.22. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Preston's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Preston 80% | Burnley 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 22% | Draw 33% | Burnley 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Preston 0.64 / Burnley 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.981 / def 0.907 | Burnley attack 1.110 / def 0.476 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Burnley (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Burnley xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Burnley kick off?
Preston vs Burnley kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Burnley?
Preston 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Preston vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Burnley part of?
Preston vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 22% chance of winning, Burnley a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Preston and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 2 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Preston and Burnley in?
Preston (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Preston's attack rating (0.98) and Burnley's defence rating (0.48), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
22%
4.51
33%
3.01
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Preston xG
Total xG
1.68
1.04
Burnley xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 19.4 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Preston and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Preston and 1.04 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Preston have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 21W 21D 28L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 22W 22D 26L from 70 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.20 PPG, Burnley on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (13W 11D 10L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 12W 9D 13L from 34 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Burnley in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 21D 28L in their last 70 games (1.20 PPG), while Burnley have gone 22W 22D 26L in their last 70 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Burnley away?
Preston's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.47 PPG; Burnley away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Preston or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Burnley in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preston
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Preston have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Preston 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 56%, Burnley 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Preston) and 44% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 35%; Preston have failed to score in 26% of games; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Preston's recent matches and 44% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Preston's recent games and 44% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Burnley tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Burnley in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 33, as Preston and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.64 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Burnley attack 1.11 / defence 0.48, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 22% | Draw 33% | Burnley 45%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 53%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.20 PPG, Burnley 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.