🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Swansea 4-0 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.24 xG and Swansea 0.99 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Swansea attack 0.95 / defence 0.87, drawn from 22/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 41% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 60%, Swansea 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Swansea's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights