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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.11 xG and Stoke City 0.92 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Stoke City attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 30%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 56%, Stoke City 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stoke City's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.18 PPG, Stoke City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights