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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Stoke City 3-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.55 xG and Stoke City 0.73 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.20 / defence 0.94 against Stoke City attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 56% | Draw 27% | Stoke City 17%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 61%, Stoke City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Stoke City's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights