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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Portsmouth and Southampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth and Southampton finished level at 1-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.70 xG and Southampton 1.24 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Southampton attack 1.09 / defence 1.35, drawn from 72/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 47% | Draw 26% | Southampton 27%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 52%, Southampton 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Southampton's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Southampton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights