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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Portsmouth and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 23, as Portsmouth and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.33 xG and QPR 0.98 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 44% | Draw 30% | QPR 27%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 55%, QPR 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.12 PPG, QPR 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights