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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 2.19 xG and Plymouth 0.53 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 0.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Plymouth attack 0.60 / defence 1.46, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 75% | Draw 17% | Plymouth 7%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 60%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights