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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Norwich defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.42 xG and Norwich 0.91 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Norwich outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Norwich attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Norwich 24%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Norwich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 60%, Norwich 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.21 PPG, Norwich 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights