🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Cardiff 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Cardiff 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 2.30 xG and Cardiff 0.99 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Cardiff attack 1.06 / defence 1.47, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 66% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 14%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 62%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Cardiff's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights