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Stalemate at Portsmouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 30, as Portsmouth and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 0.81 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Burnley attack 1.22 / defence 0.50, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 24% | Draw 31% | Burnley 45%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 64%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights