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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Plymouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.27 xG and Swansea 1.09 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Swansea attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 39% | Draw 31% | Swansea 30%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Swansea 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.06 PPG, Swansea 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights