Plymouth 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 20 as Plymouth welcome Swansea to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 10 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 3D 1L at Home Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Swansea have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.20 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Swansea and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Swansea in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Swansea 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Swansea 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.27 xG and Swansea 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.124 / defence 1.195 | Swansea attack 0.874 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.041. Data: 64 Plymouth games / 65 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 31% | Swansea 30%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Swansea 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Swansea 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 31% | Swansea 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Plymouth 1.27 / Swansea 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.124 / def 1.195 | Swansea attack 0.874 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Swansea xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Swansea kick off?
Plymouth vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 December 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Swansea?
Plymouth 1 - 2 Swansea.
Where is Plymouth vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Swansea part of?
Plymouth vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 39% chance of winning, Swansea a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Plymouth and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Swansea?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Swansea in?
Plymouth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.12) and Swansea's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.24
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.35
1.09
Swansea xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.09 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth's recent record stands at 17W 17D 30L from 64 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 26L across 64 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.06 PPG, Swansea on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 14W 8D 9L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Swansea's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.20 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Swansea in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 17W 17D 30L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Swansea have gone 21W 17D 26L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Swansea away?
Plymouth's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.61 PPG; Swansea away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Swansea have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2025, when Swansea won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Swansea?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Swansea have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2025, when Swansea 3-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 58%, Swansea 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Plymouth) and 48% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Swansea in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Plymouth's games and 55% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Plymouth's recent games and 48% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Swansea tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Swansea in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Plymouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.27 xG and Swansea 1.09 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Swansea attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 39% | Draw 31% | Swansea 30%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Swansea 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.06 PPG, Swansea 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.