🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Norwich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Norwich 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.52 xG and Norwich 1.44 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.10 / defence 1.60 against Norwich attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 40% | Draw 24% | Norwich 36%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Norwich 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Norwich arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights