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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coventry.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Coventry 3-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.74 xG and Coventry 1.64 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.50 against Coventry attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | Coventry 37%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Coventry 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights