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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Plymouth 0-5 at Home Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.75 xG and Burnley 1.38 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.38 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.38 against Burnley attack 1.00 / defence 0.53, drawn from 73/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 19% | Draw 30% | Burnley 51%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 0.95 PPG, Burnley 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights