Peterborough 0-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and West Brom meet at Weston Homes Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall Championship record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Peterborough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Brom (all games): 3W 1D 0L across 4 Championship outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.75 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Brom arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 50% and West Brom 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Peterborough 75% | West Brom 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.42 xG and West Brom 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.195 / defence 1.181 | West Brom attack 0.975 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.357. West Brom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Peterborough games / 4 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 30% | West Brom 38%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | West Brom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | West Brom 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 30% | West Brom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Peterborough 1.42 / West Brom 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.195 / def 1.181 | West Brom attack 0.975 / def 1.214 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: West Brom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.56
West Brom xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs West Brom kick off?
Peterborough vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs West Brom?
Peterborough 0 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Peterborough vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs West Brom part of?
Peterborough vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 32% chance of winning, West Brom a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Peterborough and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and West Brom in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-D-L. West Brom (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.20x the league average against West Brom's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.97x) against Peterborough's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
32%
3.15
30%
3.29
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.99
1.56
West Brom xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.56 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 2.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Brom in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
West Brom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and West Brom in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while West Brom have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and West Brom?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, West Brom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when West Brom 3-0 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 50%, West Brom 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Peterborough and 100% for West Brom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Peterborough's games and 75% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Peterborough's matches and 100% of West Brom's.
Do Peterborough and West Brom tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, West Brom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.42 xG and West Brom 1.56 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.20 / defence 1.18 against West Brom attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 32% | Draw 30% | West Brom 38%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 75%, West Brom 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Brom's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Peterborough managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. West Brom managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.