Hull City 0-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 5 as Hull City welcome Bournemouth to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 1W 0D 3L from 4 Championship matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Championship games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 2W 2D 0L from 4 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Bournemouth's 2.00 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of Hull City's 0.75 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Bournemouth trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 25% versus Bournemouth 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 50% | Bournemouth 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.64 xG and Bournemouth 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.668 / defence 1.232 | Bournemouth attack 0.974 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 0.916 / away 1.502. Hull City's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Hull City games / 4 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 12% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 65%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 8.33 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 25% | Bournemouth 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 12% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 40% | xG Hull City 0.64 / Bournemouth 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.668 / def 1.232 | Bournemouth attack 0.974 / def 1.045 | league avg home 0.916 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Bournemouth xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Bournemouth kick off?
Hull City vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Bournemouth?
Hull City 0 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Hull City vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Bournemouth part of?
Hull City vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 12% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 65% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hull City and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Bournemouth in?
Hull City (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-L-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
12%
8.42
24%
4.25
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.44
1.80
Bournemouth xG
8.42
12%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
2%
51.02
34%
2.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 15.7 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Hull City and 1.80 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 0L across 4 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hull City
1
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Bournemouth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Bournemouth 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Bournemouth?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 25%, Bournemouth 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hull City and 75% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Hull City's recent matches and 75% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hull City's matches and 75% of Bournemouth's.
Do Hull City and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Hull City and Bournemouth drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.64 xG and Bournemouth 1.80 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bournemouth landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 12% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 65%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 50%, Bournemouth 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bournemouth's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hull City managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.