🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Portsmouth defy the odds to beat Oxford United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Oxford United 0-1 at Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 1.51 xG and Portsmouth 1.10 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oxford United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Portsmouth attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oxford United 47% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 28%, with Oxford United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 37%, Portsmouth 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oxford United's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Portsmouth's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oxford United 1.15 PPG, Portsmouth 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights