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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oxford United and Coventry share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oxford United and Coventry finished level at 2-2 at Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 1.38 xG and Coventry 1.57 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Coventry attack 1.37 / defence 1.24, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oxford United 34% | Draw 24% | Coventry 42%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 37%, Coventry 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oxford United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights