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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Norwich and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich and Swansea finished level at 1-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.31 xG and Swansea 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 50%, Swansea 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.34 PPG, Swansea 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights