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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stoke City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norwich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City beat Norwich 0-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.01 xG and Stoke City 0.94 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stoke City outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Stoke City attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 36% | Draw 33% | Stoke City 32%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 51%, Stoke City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Stoke City's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.14 PPG, Stoke City 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights