🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Norwich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Norwich 3-5 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.34 xG and Portsmouth 0.86 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Portsmouth outscored their 0.86 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.27 / defence 1.13 against Portsmouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.46, drawn from 88/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 70% | Draw 17% | Portsmouth 12%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Portsmouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 54%, Portsmouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Portsmouth's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.40 PPG, Portsmouth 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights