Norwich 0-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Norwich at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Norwich face Ipswich.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ipswich make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship (matchday 42). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Norwich's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Norwich at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ipswich have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ipswich's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Norwich against 2.10 for Ipswich. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Norwich, 1 for Ipswich and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Norwich 1–3 Ipswich — a Ipswich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (last 77 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (last 77 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norwich 62% and Ipswich 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 51% | Ipswich 54%). Note also that Ipswich surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Norwich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.49 xG and Ipswich 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.979 / defence 0.941 | Ipswich attack 1.247 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.193. Ipswich have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from Norwich's last 87 games and Ipswich's last 39.
Result probabilities: Norwich 38% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 34%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.63 | Draw 3.56 | Ipswich 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norwich are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norwich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Norwich's last 10 home games and Ipswich's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Norwich 40% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 42 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 38% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Norwich 1.49 / Ipswich 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.979 / def 0.941 | Ipswich attack 1.247 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Norwich (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Ipswich xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Norwich vs Ipswich kick off?
Norwich vs Ipswich kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Ipswich?
Norwich 0 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Norwich vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Ipswich part of?
Norwich vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 38% chance of winning, Ipswich a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Norwich and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Norwich vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Norwich's attack rating (0.98) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.25x) against Norwich's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 87 games and Ipswich's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.56
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.89
1.40
Ipswich xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Norwich and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Norwich and 1.40 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 77 outings, Norwich have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 27W 18D 32L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 24W 22D 31L from 77 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Norwich against 1.22 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 37 home games (16W 6D 15L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 10W 11D 16L from their last 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.36 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
Norwich (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Norwich vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 27W 18D 32L in their last 77 games (1.29 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 24W 22D 31L in their last 77 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Ipswich away?
Norwich's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.46 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Norwich and Ipswich, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Ipswich have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Norwich
1
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Ipswich?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 1, Ipswich have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Norwich and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Norwich 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Norwich, 68% for Ipswich — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Norwich) and 57% (Ipswich).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and Ipswich matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Norwich's games and 68% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Norwich and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Norwich's recent games and 57% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Norwich's recent matches and 73% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norwich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Norwich 0-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.49 xG and Ipswich 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Ipswich attack 1.25 / defence 1.17, drawn from 87/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 38% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 34%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ipswich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 51%, Ipswich 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ipswich's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.29 PPG, Ipswich 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 42
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →