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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Norwich and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 31, as Norwich and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.76 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.61 / defence 1.18 against Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 76/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 73% | Draw 16% | Derby 11%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 57%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.47 PPG, Derby 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights