🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Norwich cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat Cardiff 4-2 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 2.06 xG and Cardiff 1.37 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.26 / defence 1.39 against Cardiff attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Norwich 53% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 25%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 55%, Cardiff 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Norwich's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Norwich 1.36 PPG, Cardiff 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.98 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights