Millwall 2-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Millwall and Hull City meet at The Den in Championship, Regular Season - 43. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Millwall's overall Championship record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Hull City have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Millwall have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Hull City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 52% versus Hull City 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Millwall 33% | Hull City 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 0.88 xG and Hull City 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.020 / defence 0.809 | Hull City attack 0.784 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.113. Data: 42 Millwall games / 42 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 37% | Draw 35% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Hull City 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.59 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 20% | Hull City 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 37% | Draw 35% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Millwall 0.88 / Hull City 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.020 / def 0.809 | Hull City attack 0.784 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Millwall (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hull City xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Hull City kick off?
Millwall vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Millwall 2 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Millwall vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Hull City part of?
Millwall vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 37% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Millwall and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Millwall and Hull City in?
Millwall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Millwall's attack rating (1.02) and Hull City's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.78x) against Millwall's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
37%
2.67
35%
2.84
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Millwall xG
Total xG
1.59
0.71
Hull City xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.4 | 14.4 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Millwall and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Millwall and 0.71 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 16W 14D 12L from 42 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 21L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Millwall against 1.12 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.86 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 29%.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Hull City in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 16W 14D 12L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Hull City away?
Millwall's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.86 PPG; Hull City away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Millwall or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hull City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Millwall
4
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Hull City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 48%, Hull City 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Millwall and 19% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hull City in 43%; Hull City in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Millwall's recent matches and 24% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Millwall's recent games and 19% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Hull City tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Millwall edge out Hull City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Hull City 2-1 at The Den, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 0.88 xG and Hull City 0.71 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Millwall beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Hull City attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 37% | Draw 35% | Hull City 27%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 33%, Hull City 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.