Hull City 2-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 42 sees Cardiff travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The MKM Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cardiff away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cardiff — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hull City have won 1, Cardiff 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Hull City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 25% versus Cardiff 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 22% | Cardiff 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.95 xG and Cardiff 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.658 / defence 1.343 | Cardiff attack 1.001 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.095. Hull City's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Hull City games / 40 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 24% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 49%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Cardiff 2.04. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 20% | Cardiff 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 24% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Hull City 0.95 / Cardiff 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.658 / def 1.343 | Cardiff attack 1.001 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Cardiff xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Cardiff kick off?
Hull City vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Hull City 2 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Hull City vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Cardiff part of?
Hull City vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 24% chance of winning, Cardiff a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hull City and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.66x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
24%
4.11
26%
3.80
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.42
1.47
Cardiff xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hull City and 1.47 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 8D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.23 PPG from 40 outings (14W 7D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.02 PPG, Cardiff on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 5W 3D 11L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.18 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Cardiff away?
Cardiff's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 0.95 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Hull City or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cardiff in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hull City
0
Draws
1
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 7, Cardiff have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Cardiff?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 32%, Cardiff 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Hull City) and 74% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Hull City's recent matches and 68% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Hull City's recent games and 74% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Cardiff tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Cardiff 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 2-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.95 xG and Cardiff 1.47 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.66 / defence 1.34 against Cardiff attack 1.00 / defence 1.39, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 24% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 49%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 22%, Cardiff 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.02 PPG, Cardiff 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.