Millwall 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Derby travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Millwall 1.20 PPG, Derby 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Millwall, 0 for Derby and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Millwall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derby trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 40% versus Derby 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 38% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.89 xG and Derby 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.033 / defence 1.136 | Derby attack 0.797 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 0.945. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Millwall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Millwall games / 9 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 61% | Draw 23% | Derby 16%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Millwall (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 40% | Derby 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 61% | Draw 23% | Derby 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Millwall 1.89 / Derby 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.033 / def 1.136 | Derby attack 0.797 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.495 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Millwall (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Derby xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Derby part of?
Millwall vs Derby is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 61% chance of winning, Derby a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Millwall and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Millwall 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Millwall vs Derby?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Millwall's attack at 1.03x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.27
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.74
0.85
Derby xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
42.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Millwall and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Millwall and 0.85 for Derby, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall's recent record stands at 18W 14D 23L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 32W 8D 15L across 55 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Millwall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 13W 4D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.64 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Derby in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Derby have gone 32W 8D 15L in their last 55 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.41 PPG; Derby away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Millwall or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derby in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Millwall's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Millwall
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 3, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 37%, Derby 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Millwall) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Derby in 41%; Millwall have failed to score in 30% of games; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Millwall's recent matches and 41% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Millwall's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Derby tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Millwall and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Den, Regular Season - 10, as Millwall and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.89 xG and Derby 0.85 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Millwall fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Derby attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 61% | Draw 23% | Derby 16%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 38%, Derby 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.