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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Swansea 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Swansea 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.31 xG and Swansea 0.93 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Swansea attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 45% | Draw 28% | Swansea 27%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 46%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Swansea's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.39 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights