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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Middlesbrough 2-3 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.23 xG and Sunderland 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Sunderland attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 41% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 28%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 49%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.51 PPG, Sunderland 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights