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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Middlesbrough and Sheffield Wednesday share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough and Sheffield Wednesday finished level at 3-3 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.31 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 36% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 34%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 50%, Sheffield Wednesday 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.53 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights