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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out QPR 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat QPR 2-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.19 xG and QPR 0.83 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Middlesbrough beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against QPR attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 44% | Draw 30% | QPR 26%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 50%, QPR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Middlesbrough's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.45 PPG, QPR 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights